Short answer: If you plan to move in the next year, plan around today's rates. Forecasts show rates staying near 7.4% to 7.5% through 2027, a rate drop would add only a little to your home's value, and right now you may be able to negotiate a lower rate (or price) instead of waiting for one.
More people are searching "when will mortgage rates go down" than at any time in the past year. If you are asking the same thing, you are not alone.
Waiting can be the right call. But first, it helps to know what you are waiting for and what waiting could change. This post covers when rates might come down, what a drop would really change, what you can do right now, and when waiting makes sense.
1. Lower rates may be a long wait
"Rates have to come down someday, right?" Someday, maybe. But not soon, based on the latest forecasts.
In its October 2026 forecast, Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed rate to stay near 7.4% for the rest of 2026, and about 7.5% for every part of 2027. A forecast is not a promise. Rates can move fast in either direction, which is why it is risky to plan around a rate you hope for.
Rates have moved fast this fall. Realtor.com shows they went from 6.66% in late August 2026 to 7.40% on October 8, 2026. For a buyer with a $2,000-a-month budget, that is more than $22,000 less home.
What would a lower rate save you? On a $400,000 loan, the payment is about $2,770 a month at 7.4% and about $2,528 at 6.5%. That is $241 less each month, or about $2,894 a year. (Example only. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan. Does not include taxes, insurance or fees.)
Takeaway: If you plan to move in the next year, plan around today's rates. Waiting can still make sense if your timing is flexible and today's payment does not fit your budget.
2. You are not the only one waiting, and that is the catch
"Can't I just jump in when rates drop?" You can. So can everyone else who is waiting.
Google Trends shows searches for "when will mortgage rates go down" hit their highest level of the past year in October 2026. And the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales in September 2026 fell to the lowest level in its records, which go back to 2001.
That is a lot of people on the sidelines. When rates drop, many of them will come back at the same time, and buyers will be competing with each other again. To be fair, lower rates would also bring more sellers back. You would have more homes to pick from, but more people trying to buy the best ones.
Takeaway: Fewer buyers means more room to bargain. If you wait for lower rates, you may trade a quiet market for a crowded one.
3. Lower rates will not raise your home's value much
"If I wait for rates to drop, my home will be worth more." A little more, maybe. Probably not as much as you hope.
In a September 2021 study, researchers at the New York Fed found that home prices react much less to mortgage rates than common models predict. By their estimate, a 1-point drop in rates raises home prices by about 2% at most, and it can take a while to show up in prices. On a $450,000 home, that is about $9,000 at most, over time. (Example only. Your neighborhood may be different.)
Takeaway: If you are waiting to sell because you think lower rates will raise your price, the gain is usually small and slow. The bigger change lower rates bring is more buyers, but also more sellers to compete with. What matters most is how homes like yours are selling near you. See what your home is worth today.
4. You may have more room to bargain than you think
While many buyers wait, the ones still looking can be in a strong spot.
"But won't prices drop if I wait?" Maybe. But nobody can promise prices will fall where you want to live, or tell you when. Prices move one neighborhood at a time. If you want a lower price, asking for one now is often more reliable than waiting for the whole market to fall. These three local numbers show how much room you have:
Days on market: how long homes like the one you want sit before they sell.
Price cuts: how many nearby homes for sale have already lowered their price.
Sale-to-list ratio: how close homes are selling to their asking price.
I can pull all three for the Boise-area neighborhoods you are watching. Ask for your local numbers.
Takeaway: There may be more room to bargain on price and terms than you expect. Every neighborhood is different, so look at how homes like the one you want are really selling nearby.
5. You can get a lower rate without waiting for one
Here is the part most people do not know: you can ask the seller to pay to lower your rate. It is called a rate buydown. The seller pays money up front to your lender, and in return you get a lower interest rate. Some buydowns last for the whole loan; others lower the rate for the first year or two.
More sellers are doing it. Redfin reported that sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of sales from June through August 2026, the highest share for those months since 2020. Concessions include money for closing costs, repairs or a rate buydown.
There are limits. On a conventional loan, sellers can pay 3% to 9% of the price, based on your down payment. FHA loans allow up to 6%. VA loans usually cap concessions at 4%. (These rules were current as of October 2026.) A buydown counts toward that limit, along with any help with closing costs. With a buydown that only lasts a year or two, you still have to qualify at the full rate. And in a busy market, asking for help can make your offer weaker, so I can tell you what is realistic where you are buying.
Price cut or rate buydown? On a $450,000 home with 20% down and a $15,000 seller credit: a $15,000 price cut ($348,000 loan at 7.4%) comes to about $2,410 a month. Using that same $15,000 for a buydown ($360,000 loan at 6.9%) comes to about $2,371 a month, about $39 less each month. (Example only. Buydown pricing, limits on seller help and loan rules are different for each lender and loan type. Ask a lender for real pricing.)
Takeaway: Instead of waiting for a lower rate, you may be able to bargain for one. When you find a home you like, compare the whole offer, not just the price, and ask your lender to price out a buydown before you make an offer.
When waiting makes sense
Waiting can be the right choice if:
Today's payment does not fit your budget, even with help from the seller.
Your job, family or timing is not settled.
You have a low rate now and no real reason to move.
Prices near you are clearly falling and you can wait without stress.
The waiting math: On a $450,000 home with 20% down, buying now at 7.4% is about $2,493 a month. If you wait for 6.5% and prices rise 3% in the meantime, the payment is about $2,344 a month, or $149 less. But if you pay $26,400 in rent while you wait (for example, a year at $2,200 a month), it would take about 178 months of the lower payment to make that back. (Example only. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan. Does not include taxes, insurance or fees. Rates and prices may not move the way you expect.)
Know your options before you decide
You do not have to guess. A clear look at your situation should show:
Your monthly payment at today's rates.
What a lower rate would really save you each month.
How homes like the one you want, or the one you own, are selling near you.
What you could ask for right now, like a rate buydown.
Talk through your options with me. No pressure to move, just a clear look at your numbers. Thinking of selling? Start here or get your home value.
About Leo Lupoli
Leo Lupoli is the owner of Lupoli Real Estate, a one-agent practice powered by eXp Realty, helping buyers and sellers across Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Nampa and the rest of Idaho. Call or text (208) 907-1358 or email leo@lifeinboise.com.
Sources
Fannie Mae, Economic and Housing Forecast, October 2026
Realtor.com, weekly mortgage rates, August to October 2026
Google Trends, "when will mortgage rates go down," United States, past 12 months, October 2026
National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales, September 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Housing Boom and the Decline in Mortgage Rates, September 2021
Redfin, seller concessions, June to August 2026
Fannie Mae Selling Guide, Interested Party Contributions, checked October 2026
HUD, FHA Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1, checked October 2026
VA, Lenders Handbook (Pamphlet 26-7), checked October 2026
